It’s plan when you look back at what has happened and what has changed. But, what will things look and be like in the future, near or far?
You see, trends change. So one can look at economic or market trends and speculate where either may go. But, then the next news event occurs and economic indicators change. Then markets change. A new trend emerges with new predictions. And the cycle begins again anew.
But wait. What about the old prediction? What happened about it and all the other before? So … why would a new prediction be any different when the future eventually gets here?
You feel good about “knowing” the future … expect when the future gets here, what you “know” today is likely quite different about what you will “know” in the future. And all the predictions made today are quickly forgotten because someone, somewhere, will make you feel good (or bad) with a new prediction.
I submit to you … better to not base anything on predictions … instead, how about good solid facts about what is known today.
Here are slides on how good Morningstar Stars are for prediction (for those who want to rely on those):