Has fear left markets? How do we know?

Professor Perry, in his blog, state fear has left the market due to a low VIX value*. (Note: the links in his blog take you to the current VIX historical values).

The VIX doesn’t predict anything. It simply looks at 30 day market volatility expectations (and expectations can change on a dime! Why? Because of news – which often surprises).

Wikipedia  |   Investopedia

How do I use the VIX? It gives me a sense of the cumulative sentiment so I may evaluate where the market sentiment is on the Cycle of  Market Emotion. Talking with you I get a sense of where you are on the Cycle.

I fall in the camp of thought that the VIX, along with anything else, is not predictive. Because the future is always unknown until it happens. Something happens and then all “predictions” change to incorporate the event (new news) … Thus, most predictions tend to be trailing events. Statistics suggest somebody may get a prediction correct “by luck,” however consistently getting it correct is not possible (we would certainly know who this prophet is because the word of his visions would get out).

Trends offer a direction, for the moment, until something changes and the trend then changes too … and thus predictions get changed.

*Low VIX means low volatility; High VIX means high volatility.

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