Markets are always uncertain. Actually, as the article below states, markets aren’t uncertain … uncertainty is a human condition that is emotional and the markets simply reflect this emotion among the many other emotions market participants feel.
I like to schedule posts in advance. You’ll notice the article below is dated May … when the S&P500 and Nasdaq indexes have closed at record highs and the DOW very close to its’ high too. The emotional tension then was between those who felt markets were uncertain and could go down because of those highs, and others who felt uncertain about all the good economic news suggesting markets could still improve. That tension always exists – whether markets are trending up or down.
Now in September we know in hindsight what has happened – that that biases us to think we know how the future will play out with the same certainty we have about knowing what happened in the past.
We don’t know the future since it is the future that is uncertain – the past is already written and certain. Plans, and investments supporting those plans, must be made with uncertainty in mind and sticking to a well made plan during uncertainty is how one reaches their goal.
As David Booth says in the article below in answer to the question “How long do I have to wait for an investment strategy to pay off?” “At least one year longer than you’re willing to give.”
Note: Your RSS feed or email may not show the embedded part of this blog … please go to the blog to be able to read the complete post.
PPS. In the interest of disclosure: I do use Dimensional sub-managed SA Funds with most clients (not a fund requirement, but a business standardization decision I’ve made because of the evidence based approach).
Analogies that explain the difference between investing and planning (Yes, they are different)! :
- Investing is the fuel for your plan – it is not the plan itself.
- Investing are the cables that support your bridge which is the plan that gets you where you are to where you want to get to.
This blog is not a solicitation; simply an explanation of the basic philosophy and approach.