“Focus on Time in the Market, Not Market Timing”

$SPX_2014-10-31_Weekly_Time_Price_Theory_Stock_Chart_with_Time_Price_CoordinatesMarket timing relies on prediction, forecasts, market analysis, etc. What are the risks (besides the obvious – the fallibility of predictions)?

The type of charts at the right tend to give one the illusion of “knowing where the animal” went by following its tracks. But real life and investing are two different things and our brains haven’t learned how to differentiate between the evolution of living in and interpreting nature, from how to interpret how markets work. Our brains interpret the chemical signals the same – but the two kinds of signals and inputs couldn’t be more different.

Time in the markets generally provides better results than trying to time the market as the below insert discusses.

My next post will discuss a study that brings up an often missed point – trading has its costs, even if one had perfect foresight. Would timing returns overcome the costs?

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By Edweigel (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons

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