Predictions are hard to do, especially about the future. (Sidebar: Origins of this quote – you may be surprised). Yet, people seem to believe that they, or somebody, are able to predict what is going to happen next. What is going to happen next? If the news says this, then that? And how do the […]
Last week I discussed a skittles chart (periodic table of investment returns) for common indexes and broad asset class returns. Below you will see how returns of various countries compare year by year for both developed and emerging markets. From dfa matrix book us_2015 from Better Financial Education Yes – it is hard to see specific […]
“While many market participants wait for the “inevitable” rise in short-term interest rates expected when the Federal Reserve tightens its monetary policy, some investors may have missed the increase in short-term rates already underway as a result of market forces. ” The rise of_short-term_rates from Better Financial Education In the interest of disclosure: I do […]
Index funds often earn higher returns than the average actively managed mutual fund. What’s their secret? The differences between retail index funds and actively managed funds are discussed below. The article does not discuss a more broadly defined index that Dimensional (DFA) has developed. Retail indexes, as the article discusses, are defined by an investment […]
This question posed in the National Geographic magazine (June 2015),… titled “Why Do Many Reasonable People Doubt Science?” … got me thinking about why reasonable people think it is possible to time the markets, even though there’s plenty of academic evidence to the contrary. Some points from the NG article that are also in many ways relevant […]
The market is unpredictable, however much you want to believe otherwise. Instead of trying (and failing) to time your entry and exit, you should structure a portfolio ahead of time that better handles market swings. Many people confuse diversification with asset allocation. They’re different (read link for short explanation how). That difference often leads to […]
Many people get confused when they invest in mutual funds, either indexed or actively managed, when they haven’t sold any of their shares, yet they get a 1099 that says they have Capital Gains* and their tax preparer says they owe taxes on those gains. How does that happen? For clarity, this comes from investments that are […]
It is early March 2014 as I write this blog. 2013, in hindsight, was a no-brainer year – just stay invested in the U.S. right? Well, this view suffers from at least two behavior flaws: 1) the influence of recent events and 2) hindsight bias. By the time this is scheduled to post at the end of […]
What are the many kinds of investment risks? Most people think of the risk of losing their money. William Bernstein dissects this simple view into many different shades of risk and astutely discusses that not all risks are of equal possibility. So while some may worry about a certain risk, they should also consider how […]
How does one, like a active fund manager, cope with so much, yet not quite enough, information? “By telling stories. Stories are how we make sense of the world around us.” Stories carry emotion. What’s wrong with a story? This part also quickly recaps the main points of Parts 1 and 2. Video blog: Fund […]
